Low-Carbon Society Scenarios: 70% Reduction CO2 Emissions by 2050

A study group presented scenarios to cut Japan's annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 70 percent from 1990 levels by 2050 at a symposium co-sponsored by the Cabinet Office and the National Institute for Environmental Studies on November 11, 2005. The study was conducted as part of the project promoted by the Ministry of the Environment to explore ways to tackle global warming from a mid- and long-term perspective.

With a reduction target set at 60 to 80 percent from 1990 levels to help stabilize the climate, the study group estimated Japan's energy supply and demand in 2050. The final energy demand in 2050 was projected to be 296 million tons in oil equivalent, roughly 80 percent of the 365 million tons in 2000, on the assumption that drastic global warming countermeasures will be taken on the demand side.

Three possible scenarios on energy supply were presented to achieve a 70 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Case 1 focuses on natural gas, nuclear power and CO2 management through carbon sequestration. In this scenario, hydrogen is produced from natural gas and the resulting CO2 is sequestered; 50 percent of the total electricity is supplied from nuclear power generation; and only a small amount of renewable energy is used. In Case 2, centering on hydrogen and biomass, hydrogen is generated from biomass or by using wind-generated electricity, and the amount of nuclear generation is about half of that in Case 1. Case 3, with an emphasis on biomass and renewables, requires a huge amount of biomass but no nuclear energy.

To reduce CO2 emissions by 70 percent, drastic changes in existing energy systems will be required. The study group will continue to analyze the scenarios, including the relevant costs involved.

http://2050.nies.go.jp/material/backcasting.pdf

Posted: 2006/03/16 10:55:33 AM
Japanese version