Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Envisages 15 Million FCVs in Use by 2030

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry estimates that 1.5 million fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will be in use by 2030. The estimate was made in a scenario drawn up in March, 2004 that envisages a hydrogen energy society.

The scenario was prepared by the Policy Study Group for Fuel Cell Commercialization, a private study group established to assist the Director General of the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy. It was set up to clarify what it will mean to apply fuel cell technology and to identify technological problems and solutions relevant to practical application. The group presented the scenario, setting forth blueprints of Japan's hydrogen energy society in 2030.

According to the scenario, 50,000 FCVs will be in use in 2010, 5 million in 2020, and 15 million in 2030. Stationary fuel cells are expected to produce 2.2 million kilowatts in 2010, 10 million kilowatts in 2020, and 12.5 kilowatts in 2030.

The scenario also has set the following technological targets:
Retail price of hydrogen: less than 450 yen/kg. (about U.S. $4/kg)
Hydrogen capacity per FCV: over 7kg
FC energy efficiency - vehicles: over 60%
FC energy efficiency - stationary: over 40%
FC durability - vehicles: over 5,000 hours and over 60,000 start/stop cycles
FC durability - stationary: over 90,000 hours
Economic efficiency of vehicle FCs: less than 4,000 yen/stack (about U.S. $38/stack)
Economic efficiency of stationary FCs: less than 400,000 yen/unit (about U.S. $3846/unit)

In response to the study group's report, related national government agencies and organizations are taking various measures to facilitate the utilization and diffusion of fuel cells, including promotion of technological development, verification testing, establishment of codes and standards, and a review of rules and regulations. Experiments to demonstrate the utility of fuel cell buses will be conducted at the 2005 World Exposition in Aichi Prefecture, and a large-scale hydrogen station will be built to verify the workabiliby of the hydrogen supply infrastructure.




Posted: 2004/07/05 11:35:04 AM
Japanese version