December 10, 2017
Keywords: Policy / Systems Resilience
Image by nguyentuanhung.
Professor Yoshinori Hiroi and colleagues of Kyoto University's Kokoro Research Center proposed on Sept. 5, 2017, the types of policies needed for Japan's sustainable future. Their work was accomplished with the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology developed by the Hitachi Kyoto University Laboratory, a joint research division for exploring future societal issues. The use of AI technology was part of a joint research initiative for integrating humanities and sciences, identifying societal factors, and the timing for implementing policies.
Kyoto University proposed to utilize AI technology in some parts of the policy recommendation process towards Japan's sustainable future. Japan is experiencing a paradigm shift as a result of the decreasing birthrate and aging population and a change in industry structure, moving from growth and expansion to a post-growth era (non-growth and non-expansion). The significant social challenges Japan faces are sustainability of (1) population and birth rates, (2) public finance and social security, (3) cities and regions, and (4) environment and resources. In addition, there are challenges with (5) stable employment, (6) regional disparities, (7) happiness, and (8) maintaining and promoting the well-being of people who live in Japan. Japan needs to design and implement well-timed strategic policies to tackle these challenges, but human experts are constrained in the number of future scenarios they are able to create and evaluate.
For these proposed policies, the team first built a model of causal relationships involving 149 societal factors based on the eight challenges mentioned above. Then, by conducting an AI simulation, they estimated approximately 20,000 future scenarios over the course of 35 years (2018 to 2052) and grouped them into 23 representative scenarios.
The researchers discovered that the scenarios diverged in two different directions, so they made an effort to determine the timing and sequence of divergence, and identified the factors driving the divergence. Their analysis provided the basis for experts to make the following three observations about attaining a sustainable future.
Kyoto University intends to work with research institutes within and outside of the university and with public institutions to promote these proposals as guidelines leading to healthy and happy lives for the populace, and hopes that these proposals will be utilized in decision making affecting social policies.