Climate Model Predicts Longer Rainy Season in Future Japan

The Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute (AORI) of the University of Tokyo issued on October 14, 2011, a booklet for the public entitled "Heat is not the only problem with global warming - the future of Japanese climate based on the world meteorological model -" (available only in Japanese).

AORI, in a collaborative study with other research institutes, compared the results of reproduction experiments on 20th century climate and climate change prediction experiments for the 21st century among 24 meteorological models gathered from various institutes around the world, and performed a prediction study on Japanese weather phenomena about fifty to a hundred years in the future. Some of the results are summarized in this booklet in an easy-to-understand format.

As for the rainy season, it is predicted to increase in length because the Ogasawara high pressure and westerlies that move north will grow weaker. Therefore, precipitation will not decrease, even in July, and summer will be hotter and more humid.

Currently, typhoons occur more frequently in the east sea of the Philippines. However, it is predicted that this high-activity area will move east, to the ocean area between 150 degrees east longitude and the international dateline. As typhoons that develop in this area are expected to move above the ocean east of Japan, the number of typhoons making landfall in Japan will decrease, if their routes remain unchanged.

Posted: 2012/02/23 06:00:15 AM